Identifying adults at high-risk for change in weight and BMI in England: a longitudinal, large-scale, population-based cohort study using electronic health records.

BACKGROUND: Targeted obesity prevention policies would benefit from the identification of population groups with the highest risk of weight gain. The relative importance of adult age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation on weight gain is not known. We aimed to identify high-risk groups for changes in weight and BMI using electronic health records (EHR). METHODS: In this longitudinal, population-based cohort study we used linked EHR data from 400 primary care practices (via the Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England, accessed via the CALIBER programme. Eligible participants were aged 18-74 years, were registered at a general practice clinic, and had BMI and weight measurements recorded between Jan 1, 1998, and June 30, 2016, during the period when they had eligible linked data with at least 1 year of follow-up time. We calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over 1, 5, and 10 years, and investigated the absolute risk and odds ratios (ORs) of transitioning between BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and severe obesity [class 3]), as defined by WHO. The associations of demographic factors with BMI transitions were estimated by use of logistic regression analysis, adjusting for baseline BMI, family history of cardiovascular disease, use of diuretics, and prevalent chronic conditions. FINDINGS: We included 2 092 260 eligible individuals with more than 9 million BMI measurements in our study. Young adult age was the strongest risk factor for weight gain at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Compared with the oldest age group (65-74 years), adults in the youngest age group (18-24 years) had the highest OR (4·22 [95% CI 3·86-4·62]) and greatest absolute risk (37% vs 24%) of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity at 10 years. Likewise, adults in the youngest age group with overweight or obesity at baseline were also at highest risk to transition to a higher BMI category; OR 4·60 (4·06-5·22) and absolute risk (42% vs 18%) of transitioning from overweight to class 1 and 2 obesity, and OR 5·87 (5·23-6·59) and absolute risk (22% vs 5%) of transitioning from class 1 and 2 obesity to class 3 obesity. Other demographic factors were consistently less strongly associated with these transitions; for example, the OR of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity in people living in the most socially deprived versus least deprived areas was 1·23 (1·18-1·27), for men versus women was 1·12 (1·08-1·16), and for Black individuals versus White individuals was 1·13 (1·04-1·24). We provide an open access online risk calculator, and present high-resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year follow-up period. INTERPRETATION: A radical shift in policy is required to focus on individuals at the highest risk of weight gain (ie, young adults aged 18-24 years) for individual-level and population-level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care. FUNDING: The British Hearth Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.

Relation of the traditional Mediterranean diet to cerebrovascular disease in a Mediterranean population.

The authors aimed to evaluate the association of the traditional Mediterranean diet and major food groups with incidence of and mortality from cerebrovascular disease (CBVD) in a Mediterranean population. The study population was a cohort of 23,601 participants from the Greek segment of the EPIC Study (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) who were free of cardiovascular diseases and cancer at baseline (1994-1999). Diet was assessed by means of a validated food frequency questionnaire. A 10-point scale integrating key Mediterranean diet characteristics was used to assess the participants' degree of adherence to this diet. During a median follow-up period of 10.6 years (1994-2009), 395 confirmed incident cases and 196 deaths from CBVD were recorded. Using Cox proportional hazards regression and adjusting for potential confounders, increased adherence to the Mediterranean diet, as measured by 2-point increments in score, was inversely associated with CBVD incidence (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.74, 0.96) and mortality (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.88, 95% CI: 0.73, 1.06). These inverse trends were mostly evident among women and with respect to ischemic rather than hemorrhagic CBVD and were largely driven by consumption of vegetables, legumes, and olive oil. These data provide support for an inverse association of adherence to the Mediterranean diet with CBVD incidence and mortality.

Fruit and vegetable intake and mortality from ischaemic heart disease: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Heart study.

AIMS: A higher intake of fruits and vegetables has been associated with a lower risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD), but there is some uncertainty about the interpretation of this association. The objective was to assess the relation between fruit and vegetable intake and risk of mortality from IHD in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Heart study. METHODS AND RESULTS: After an average of 8.4 years of follow-up, there were 1636 deaths from IHD among 313 074 men and women without previous myocardial infarction or stroke from eight European countries. Participants consuming at least eight portions (80 g each) of fruits and vegetables a day had a 22% lower risk of fatal IHD [relative risk (RR) = 0.78, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65-0.95] compared with those consuming fewer than three portions a day. After calibration of fruit and vegetable intake to account for differences in dietary assessment between the participating centres, a one portion (80 g) increment in fruit and vegetable intake was associated with a 4% lower risk of fatal IHD (RR = 0.96, 95% CI: 0.92-1.00, P for trend = 0.033). CONCLUSION: Results from this large observational study suggest that a higher intake of fruits and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of IHD mortality. Whether this association is causal and, if so, the biological mechanism(s) by which fruits and vegetables operate to lower IHD risks remains unclear.

Risk factors and drug interactions predisposing to statin-induced myopathy: implications for risk assessment, prevention and treatment.

HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors ('statins') represent the most effective and widely prescribed drugs currently available for the reduction of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, a critical therapeutic target for primary and secondary prevention of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease. In the face of the established lipid lowering and the emerging pleiotropic properties of statins, the patient population suitable for long-term statin treatment is expected to further expand. An overall positive safety and tolerability profile of statins has been established, although adverse events have been reported. Skeletal muscle-related events are the most common adverse events of statin treatment. Statin-induced myopathy can (rarely) manifest with severe and potentially fatal cases of rhabdomyolysis, thus rendering the identification of the underlying predisposing factors critical. The purpose of this review is to summarize the factors that increase the risk of statin-related myopathy. Data from published clinical trials, meta-analyses, postmarketing studies, spontaneous report systems and case reports for rare effects were reviewed. Briefly, the epidemiology, clinical spectrum and molecular mechanisms of statin-associated myopathy are discussed. We further analyse in detail the risk factors that precipitate or increase the likelihood of statin-related myopathy. Individual demographic features, genetic factors and co-morbidities that may account for the significant interindividual variability in the myopathic risk are presented. Physicochemical properties of statins have been implicated in the differential risk of currently marketed statins. Pharmacokinetic interactions with concomitant medications that interfere with statin metabolism and alter their systemic bioavailability are reviewed. Of particular clinical interest in cases of resistant dyslipidaemia is the interaction of statins with other classes of lipid-lowering agents; current data on the relative safety of available combinations are summarized. Finally, we provide an update of current guidelines for the prevention and management of statin myopathy. The identification of patients with an increased proclivity to statin-induced myopathy could allow more cost-effective approaches of monitoring and screening, facilitate targeted prevention of potential complications, and further improve the already overwhelmingly positive benefit-risk ratio of statins.

Association between pre-diagnostic circulating vitamin D concentration and risk of colorectal cancer in European populations:a nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between pre-diagnostic circulating vitamin D concentration, dietary intake of vitamin D and calcium, and the risk of colorectal cancer in European populations. DESIGN: Nested case-control study. Setting The study was conducted within the EPIC study, a cohort of more than 520 000 participants from 10 western European countries. PARTICIPANTS: 1248 cases of incident colorectal cancer, which developed after enrolment into the cohort, were matched to 1248 controls MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Circulating vitamin D concentration (25-hydroxy-vitamin-D, 25-(OH)D) was measured by enzyme immunoassay. Dietary and lifestyle data were obtained from questionnaires. Incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the risk of colorectal cancer by 25-(OH)D concentration and levels of dietary calcium and vitamin D intake were estimated from multivariate conditional logistic regression models, with adjustment for potential dietary and other confounders. RESULTS: 25-(OH)D concentration showed a strong inverse linear dose-response association with risk of colorectal cancer (P for trend <0.001). Compared with a pre-defined mid-level concentration of 25-(OH)D (50.0-75.0 nmol/l), lower levels were associated with higher colorectal cancer risk (<25.0 nmol/l: incidence rate ratio 1.32 (95% confidence interval 0.87 to 2.01); 25.0-49.9 nmol/l: 1.28 (1.05 to 1.56), and higher concentrations associated with lower risk (75.0-99.9 nmol/l: 0.88 (0.68 to 1.13); >or=100.0 nmol/l: 0.77 (0.56 to 1.06)). In analyses by quintile of 25-(OH)D concentration, patients in the highest quintile had a 40% lower risk of colorectal cancer than did those in the lowest quintile (P<0.001). Subgroup analyses showed a strong association for colon but not rectal cancer (P for heterogeneity=0.048). Greater dietary intake of calcium was associated with a lower colorectal cancer risk. Dietary vitamin D was not associated with disease risk. Findings did not vary by sex and were not altered by corrections for season or month of blood donation. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this large observational study indicate a strong inverse association between levels of pre-diagnostic 25-(OH)D concentration and risk of colorectal cancer in western European populations. Further randomised trials are needed to assess whether increases in circulating 25-(OH)D concentration can effectively decrease the risk of colorectal cancer.

Anthropometry and esophageal cancer risk in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence suggests that general obesity [measured by body mass index (BMI)] is positively associated with risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). In contrast, previous studies have shown inverse relations with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). However, it is still unclear whether body fat distribution, particularly abdominal obesity, is associated with each type of esophageal cancer. METHODS: We applied multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression to investigate the association between anthropometric measures and risk of EAC and ESCC among 346,554 men and women participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. All statistical tests were two sided. RESULTS: During 8.9 years of follow-up, we documented 88 incident cases of EAC and 110 cases of ESCC. BMI, waist circumference, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were positively associated with EAC risk [highest versus lowest quintile; relative risk (RR), 2.60; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.23-5.51; P(trend) < 0.01; RR, 3.07; 95% CI, 1.35-6.98; P(trend) < 0.003; and RR, 2.12; 95% CI, 0.98-4.57; P(trend) < 0.004]. In contrast, BMI and waist circumference were inversely related to ESCC risk, whereas WHR showed no association with ESCC. In stratified analyses, BMI and waist circumference were significantly inversely related to ESCC only among smokers but not among nonsmokers. However, when controlled for BMI, we found positive associations for waist circumference and WHR with ESCC, and these associations were observed among smokers and nonsmokers. CONCLUSION: General and abdominal obesity were associated with higher EAC risk. Further, our study suggests that particularly an abdominal body fat distribution might also be a risk factor for ESCC.

Physical activity and risk of prostate cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort.

The evidence concerning the possible association between physical activity and the risk of prostate cancer is inconsistent and additional data are needed. We examined the association between risk of prostate cancer and physical activity at work and in leisure time in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. In our study, including 127,923 men aged 20-97 years from 8 European countries, 2,458 cases of prostate cancer were identified during 8.5 years of followup. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we investigated the associations between prostate cancer incidence rate and occupational activity and leisure time activity in terms of participation in sports, cycling, walking and gardening; a metabolic equivalent (MET) score based on weekly time spent on the 4 activities; and a physical activity index. MET hours per week of leisure time activity, higher score in the physical activity index, participation in any of the 4 leisure time activities, and the number of leisure time activities in which the participants were active were not associated with prostate cancer incidence. However, higher level of occupational physical activity was associated with lower risk of advanced stage prostate cancer (p(trend) = 0.024). In conclusion, our data support the hypothesis of an inverse association between advanced prostate cancer risk and occupational physical activity, but we found no support for an association between prostate cancer risk and leisure time physical activity.

Fruit, vegetables, and colorectal cancer risk: the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

BACKGROUND: A high consumption of fruit and vegetables is possibly associated with a decreased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the findings to date are inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: We examined the relation between self-reported usual consumption of fruit and vegetables and the incidence of CRC. DESIGN: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 452,755 subjects (131,985 men and 320,770 women) completed a dietary questionnaire in 1992-2000 and were followed up for cancer incidence and mortality until 2006. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard model was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. RESULTS: After an average follow-up of 8.8 y, 2,819 incident CRC cases were reported. Consumption of fruit and vegetables was inversely associated with CRC in a comparison of the highest with the lowest EPIC-wide quintile of consumption (HR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.75, 1.00; P for trend = 0.04), particularly with colon cancer risk (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63, 0.91; P for trend < 0.01). Only after exclusion of the first 2 y of follow-up were these findings corroborated by calibrated continuous analyses for a 100-g increase in consumption: HRs of 0.95 (95% CI: 0.91, 1.00; P = 0.04) and 0.94 (95% CI: 0.89, 0.99; P = 0.02), respectively. The association between fruit and vegetable consumption and CRC risk was inverse in never and former smokers, but positive in current smokers. This modifying effect was found for fruit and vegetables combined and for vegetables alone (P for interaction < 0.01 for both). CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that a high consumption of fruit and vegetables is associated with a reduced risk of CRC, especially of colon cancer. This effect may depend on smoking status.

Lifestyle factors and serum androgens among 636 middle aged men from seven countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association between lifestyle and dietary factors and serum concentrations of androgens in middle-aged healthy men. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the association of lifestyle factors with circulating concentrations of androstenedione (A-dione), 3-alpha-androstanediol glucuronide (A-diol-g), testosterone (T), SHBG (sex hormone-binding globulin), and free testosterone (FT) among 636 men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. RESULTS: Compared with the youngest age group (40-49 years), the oldest (70-79 years) had a higher mean concentration of SHBG (by 44%) and lower mean concentrations of A-diol-g (by 29%) FT (19%). Men in the highest BMI group (> or =29.83 kg/m(2)) had a higher mean A-diol-g concentration (by 38%) and lower mean concentration of T (by 20%) SHBG (29%) compared with the lowest (<24.16 kg/m(2)). Current smokers had higher mean concentrations of T (by 13%), SHBG (14%), and A-dione (15%) compared with never smokers. Physical activity and dietary factors were not associated with androgen concentrations, although men in the highest fifth of alcohol intake had higher mean concentrations of A-dione (by 9%), FT (11%) compared with the lowest. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that age, body weight, smoking, and alcohol intake are associated with circulating androgen concentrations in men.

Ethanol intake and the risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of baseline and lifetime ethanol intake with cancer of the pancreas in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). METHODS: Included in this analysis were 478,400 subjects, of whom detailed information on the intake of alcoholic beverages at baseline and over lifetime was collected between 1992 and 2000. During a median follow-up time of 8.9 years, 555 non-endocrine pancreatic cancer cases were observed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association of ethanol intake at recruitment and average lifetime ethanol intake and pancreatic cancer adjusting for smoking, height, weight, and history of diabetes. RESULTS: Overall, neither ethanol intake at recruitment (relative risk (RR) = 0.94, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69-1.27 comparing 30+ g/d vs. 0.1-4.9 g/d) nor average lifetime ethanol intake (RR = 0.95, 95% CI 0.65-1.39) was associated with pancreatic cancer risk. High lifetime ethanol intake from spirits/liquor at recruitment tended to be associated with a higher risk (RR = 1.40, 95% CI 0.93-2.10 comparing 10+ g/d vs. 0.1-4.9 g/d), but no associations were observed for wine and beer consumption. CONCLUSION: These results suggest no association of alcohol consumption with the risk of pancreatic cancer.

A prospective analysis of the association between dietary fiber intake and prostate cancer risk in EPIC.

Few studies have examined the association between dietary fiber intake and prostate cancer risk. We evaluated the association between dietary fiber intake and the risk of prostate cancer among 142,590 men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Consumption of dietary fiber (total, cereal, fruit and vegetable fiber) was estimated by validated dietary questionnaires and calibrated using 24-hr dietary recalls. Incidence rate ratios were estimated using Cox regression and adjusted for potential confounding factors. During an average of 8.7 years follow-up, prostate cancer was diagnosed in 2,747 men. Overall, there was no association between dietary fiber intake (total, cereal, fruit or vegetable fiber) and prostate cancer risk, although calibrated intakes of total fiber and fruit fiber were associated with nonstatistically significant reductions in risk. There was no association between fiber derived from cereals or vegetables and risk and no evidence for heterogeneity in any of the risk estimates by stage or grade of disease. Our results suggest that dietary fiber intake is not associated with prostate cancer risk.

The syndrome of rhabdomyolysis: complications and treatment.

Rhabdomyolysis is a syndrome of skeletal muscle cell damage that leads to the release of toxic intracellular material into the systemic circulation. The pathogenesis of rhabdomyolysis is based on an increase in free ionized calcium in the cytoplasm. Its main complications include (a) acute renal failure, which is triggered by renal vasoconstriction and ischemia, (b) myoglobin cast formation in the distal convoluted tubules, and (c) direct renal toxic effect of myoglobin on the epithelial cells of proximal convoluted tubules. Other major complications include electrolyte disorders, such as hyperkalemia, which may cause cardiac arrhythmias, metabolic acidosis, hyperphosphatemia, early hypocalcemia, and late hypercalcemia. Compartmental syndrome and disseminated intravascular coagulopathy may also emerge. The management of myoglobinuric acute renal failure includes aggressive fluid administration to restore the hypovolemia and urine alkalization. The concomitant electrolyte and metabolic disorders should also be treated appropriately; hemodialysis should be considered when life-threatening hyperkalemia and metabolic acidosis exist. In the case of compartmental syndrome, it is important to monitor the intra-compartmental pressure and to perform fasciotomy, if required. When diagnosed early and if the appropriate treatment is initiated promptly, the complications of rhabdomyolysis are preventable and the syndrome has a good prognosis.

Plasma selenium concentration and prostate cancer risk: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND: Some evidence indicates that a low selenium intake may be associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to investigate the association of plasma selenium concentration with subsequent prostate cancer risk and to examine this association by stage and grade of disease and other factors. DESIGN: A nested case-control study was performed among men in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). The association between plasma selenium concentration and prostate cancer risk was assessed in 959 men with incident prostate cancer and 1059 matched controls. RESULTS: Overall, plasma selenium concentration was not associated with prostate cancer risk; the multivariate relative risk for men in the highest fifth of selenium concentration compared with the lowest fifth was 0.96 (95% CI: 0.70, 1.31; P for trend = 0.25). There were no significant differences in the association of plasma selenium with risk when analyzed by stage or grade of disease. Similarly, the association of selenium with risk did not differ by smoking status or by plasma alpha- or gamma-tocopherol concentration. CONCLUSION: Plasma selenium concentration was not associated with prostate cancer risk in this large cohort of European men.

In vivo comparative study of linear versus geometrically correct three-dimensional reconstruction of coronary arteries.

Although conventional linear 3-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of coronary arteries by intravascular ultrasound has been widely used for the assessment of plaque volume and progression; the volumetric error (VE) that is produced has not been adequately studied. Linear and geometrically correct 3D reconstruction was applied in 16 coronary arterial segments from 9 patients. Using geometrically correct reconstruction as reference, VE was assessed in 1-mm-long arterial slices. Although for the entire length of the coronary arteries VEs for lumen, external elastic membrane (EEM), and intima-media volumes were minimal (lumen VE 0.4%, -0.8 to 1.8; EEM VE 0.3%, -0.9 to 1.9; intima-media VE 0.4%, -1.4 to 2.2), the VE in each arterial slice exhibited a large variation from -15.6% to 36.2% for lumen volume, from -12.9% to 33.1% for EEM volume, and from -17.2% to 46.7% for intima-media volume, suggesting that linear reconstruction over- or underestimates the true arterial volumes. Lumen VE, EEM VE, and intima-media VE were also significantly higher in curved arterial subsegments than in relatively straight arterial subsegments (p <0.05). In conclusion, in highly curved arterial subsegments, the VE that is produced by linearly stacking the intravascular ultrasound images may be not negligible. Geometrically correct reconstruction of coronary arteries provides more reliable arterial reconstructions and plaque volume measurements. It is anticipated that clinical application of this technique will contribute to more accurate follow-up of the progression of atherosclerosis and assessment of arterial remodeling.

The syndrome of rhabdomyolysis: Pathophysiology and diagnosis.

Rhabdomyolysis is defined as a pathological condition of skeletal muscle cell damage leading to the release of toxic intracellular material into the blood circulation. Its major causes include trauma, ischemia, drugs, toxins, metabolic disorders, and infections. The pathophysiological hallmark of the syndrome is an increase in intracellular free ionized calcium due to either cellular energy depletion, or direct plasma membrane rupture. The increased intracellular calcium activates several proteases, intensifies skeletal muscle cell contractility, induces mitochondrial dysfunction, and increases the production of reactive oxygen species, ultimately resulting in skeletal muscle cell death. Clinically, the syndrome presents with severe muscular pain, weakness and myoglobinuria. Increased myoglobin and creatine phosphokinase as a consequence of muscular cell death are the major laboratory findings, which, in combination with the clinical presentation, lead the clinician to the final diagnosis of the syndrome.